⚽ Football Model

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Predictions Period League

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Every Sunday evening each Liga Portugal game of the coming week is researched (injuries, suspensions, fatigue from Europe and the cup, line-ups, form, home advantage, manager news, motivation, referee, weather, tactics, market) and given one best bet, chosen for its chance of winning, whatever the odds. Bet only at Betclic at or above the minimum odds. Not financial advice. 18+, bet responsibly.

A daily analysis of every fixture. Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles model built on time-weighted xG/shots ratings blended with Elo. Lean is the market the model rates best against the bookmakers' prices. It is only marked Value when it clears the backtested threshold. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's no-vig probability. Backtest results · ML evaluation · Source. Statistical model, not financial advice. 18+, bet responsibly.